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Weak outlook disappointed investors

Activision Blizzard posted good 3Q results, but the company gave a weak forecast. Revenue rose to $ 2.070 billion from $ 1.954 billion a year earlier, net orders increased to $ 1.88 billion from $ 1.77 billion. Net income in July-September was $ 639 million, or 82 cents per share, up from $ 604 million. or 78 cents per share, for the same period last year. At the same time, profit excluding one-time factors increased to 89 cents per share from 88 cents. The market expected the company’s adjusted earnings of 70 cents per share, revenues – $ 1.88 billion, orders – $ 1.87 billion. The number of monthly active users at the end of September was 390 million, compared with 435 million in the third quarter a year earlier. At the same time, their number has not changed over the year.

Flexport

Flexport is a global freight forwarder operating an intelligent logistics platform that enables effective decisions to participate in global trade. Freight forwarding is a complex of services for ensuring the transportation of goods, including their documentary registration and support. The essence of professional forwarding consists in escorting cargo “from door to door” and continuous monitoring of the cargo transportation process in order to avoid failures. The company was founded in 2013 by Ryan Petersen and Suzanne Schöneberg. Petersen retains his position as CEO, while Schöneberg is developing a logistics resource, Flexport.org, which pursues the goals of the ESG agenda.

Flexport’s original goal was to improve coordination and communication between buyers and sellers in the global trade. In the year the company was established, the logistics industry continued to operate according to the traditional scheme, using paper documents. Flexport’s mission was to modernize and simplify the cumbersome bureaucratic freight forwarding process while minimizing the potential for operational errors. In three years, Flexport’s customer base has grown to 700 customers in 64 countries around the world. In 2018, Flexport expanded its operations with the introduction of freight financing services, the charter of its own aircraft and the management of its own warehouses. Currently, Flexport’s customer base numbers 10,000 clients in 200 countries around the world.

Flexport’s business model is designed in such a way that the company makes money from both importers and exporters. The company’s revenue grew from $ 30 million in 2014 to $ 1.7 billion in 2020. It is no secret that the global pandemic has had a negative effect on the company’s business due to the disruption of the world’s logistics supply chains. Nevertheless, the company managed to adapt to the new conditions. Management says the company maintains positive margins. During the pandemic, Flexport.org was one of 10 organizations that contributed to the creation of the Frontline Responder’s Fund. The foundation raised more than $ 8 million and used it to provide social assistance, including the delivery of 54 million masks, food and medical supplies around the world. The fund used the patented intelligent Flexport technology, which is able to determine where in the world one or another product is most in demand.

According to Crunchbase, during 4 investment rounds during 2014-2019. Flexport was able to raise $ 1.3 billion. Following the results of the last investment round of Series D in February 2019, during which the company was able to raise $ 1 billion, Flexport’s valuation was $ 3.2 billion. Among the largest investors in the transaction were funds such as Softbank, Founders Fund, DST Global, Cherubic Ventures, Susa Ventures and SF Expresslead. There is no information in public sources about the company’s intention to go public. However, according to Crunchbase, there were major secondary market deals in the company’s stock in March and December 2019.

As the global economy recovers from the pandemic, global trade is showing steady growth. According to FreightWaves.com, in May 2021, global freight traffic was 1.5 times higher than before the pandemic. Market growth is associated not only with an increase in current demand, but also with the desire of retailers to build up their stocks to meet the growing demand in the medium term. Flexport has a competitive advantage in terms of data processing and understanding in which geographic location it is most demanded to deliver this or that cargo. Raising capital through an IPO mechanism would help the company scale its platform in the face of growing business activity in all logistics markets around the world. Among the obvious risks for Flexport’s business are the risks of a slowdown in the global economy and the risks of tightening industry regulation in individual countries.

Difficult period for Amazon

The world’s largest online retailer Amazon.com posted weaker-than-expected net profit and revenue in the third quarter amid unprecedented global supply chain challenges and labor shortages. Amazon’s quarterly revenue increased 15% year-on-year to $ 110.8 billion, which was below the market forecast of $ 111.55 billion. Net income in July-September fell 50% to $ 3.16 billion from $ 6.33 billion for the same period a year earlier, which was the largest drop since the second quarter of 2017. Earnings per share fell to $ 6.12 from $ 12.37 and was well below market expectations of $ 8.9.

Apple’s revenue hits record highs, but falls short of market expectations

Apple has released results for its fourth fiscal quarter and full fiscal 2021. Revenue for the fiscal quarter ended September 25 was $ 83.4 billion, compared with $ 64.7 billion in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year, worse than the $ 85.1 billion consensus. The indicator grew by 29% year-on-year, to a record value for this period, but for the first time since 2018, the indicator fell short of market expectations. Sales of iPhone and wearable devices were also worse than analysts’ forecasts. Apple’s net income last quarter increased to $ 20.6 billion, or $ 1.24 per share, from $ 12.7 billion, or $ 0.73 per share a year earlier, in line with market expectations. We maintain a positive attitude towards Apple’s business, as well as maintain a fair value for the company’s stock at $ 180.

Indices are storming new frontiers

American stock indices rose for the week and renewed their historical values ​​again. The S&P 500 added 1.3% for the week, while the capitalization of the Nasdaq rose 3.2%. October was the best month since the beginning of the year. Thanks to strong corporate reporting, the S&P 500 yielded 7% over the past month, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 8%. The season for corporate reporting is in full swing. Caterpillar engineering group, whose reporting is perceived as an indicator of the situation in the real sector of the economy, delighted investors with good quarterly results. Ford has improved its profit forecast for 2021. It is also worth noting the excellent reporting of Microsoft and Google, which have shown strong growth in cloud revenues. Microsoft shares were in demand all week, and on Friday the company’s capitalization reached a record of $ 2,490 billion. Microsoft is now the most valuable company in the world, followed by Apple with a capitalization of $ 2,458 billion.

Bird

Bird, based in Santa Monica, is engaged in the production, sale and rental of electric scooters and electric bicycles. Inspired by his daughters riding classic scooters, founder and CEO Travis VanderZanden thought adults would also be interested in getting around town on electrified versions of this mobile transport. Travis believes that electric scooters are a necessary component of urban logistics because the electric scooter is, firstly, green, and secondly, it improves road safety. Bird launched its business in 2017.

However, in the first six months of the company’s operation in Santa Monica, many problems arose, such as dangerous behavior of citizens on electric scooters and disregard of local laws. Customers also threw electric scooters in pedestrian areas, which caused discontent among citizens. After a series of accidents, numerous fines and civil protests, the city attorney’s office filed a lawsuit against Bird. The company managed to settle the claim with a payment of $ 300 thousand. In 2019, Bird published a safety report in collaboration with David Strickland, the former head of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

In the summer of 2021, the Santa Monica administration allowed only three electric scooter rental companies, namely Spin, Veo and Lyft, to operate, effectively pushing Bird out of the market. Bird currently rents its equipment in more than 300 cities in the USA and Europe, and also offers them for purchase on the site of the same name. The company’s revenue in 1H21 increased by 181% yoy, which is 30% higher than expected. The gross transaction value also increased by 182% compared to the first half of 2020, which is 30% higher than expected. In August 2021, Bird unveiled its new Bird Bike electric bike for $ 2,299.

In total, since 2017, Bird has raised $ 623 million in five investment rounds. In May 2021, Bird announced plans to go public through a SPAC deal with Switchback II, which was set up to merge with a green company. The indicative valuation of the deal could be $ 2.3 billion, but at the beginning of 2020 Bird’s valuation was $ 2.85 billion. The decline in the indicative value was due to the global lockdown caused by Covid. The company had to temporarily suspend its activities and lay off almost 40% of its staff. The combined company will raise $ 428 million from private investors, as well as $ 160 million from Fidelity Management & Research Co. and other investors. Bird will also gain access to $ 40 million in funding from specialized finance firms Apollo Investment Corp. in New York and MidCap Financial Trust in Maryland. The official date for Bird’s IPO has yet to be announced.

At the end of 2020, the volume of the electric scooter market was estimated at $ 19.4 billion. The average annual growth rate of the industry is projected at 7.6% until 2028. Bird is not only engaged in electric scooters, but also expands its product line. For example, the addition of e-bikes will allow the company to increase its presence in the mobile urban EV market by billions of rides per year. Risks include competition from companies such as Razor, Lime, Scoot, Skip and Spin. However, the most obvious risk factor to consider is the physical danger of riding electric scooters, which has led to numerous lawsuits over the years. Nevertheless, in the course of the transaction, the company will raise a significant amount of funds, which Bird plans to use to reduce its debt burden, scale up its operations, increase competitiveness and increase its market share.

We raise the company’s valuation based on excellent quarterly results

Microsoft posted excellent results for its first fiscal quarter, which ended in September. We were impressed by Microsoft’s financial statements, so we revised our valuation of the company upwards from $ 320 to $ 360 per share. Microsoft’s revenue increased 22% yoy to $ 45.3 billion, better than market expectations of $ 44 billion. Net income soared 48% yoy to a record $ 20.5 billion, up from $ 13.89 billion in the same period last financial year. Net income exceeded the previous record, set a quarter earlier, by more than $ 4 billion. Net earnings per share in July-September rose to $ 2.71 from $ 1.82 a year earlier against the market forecast of $ 2.08. The press release notes that quarterly earnings were positively impacted by a one-off effect from the return of a part of intellectual property worth $ 3.3 billion. Without this factor, earnings per share would have been $ 2.27, which is also significantly higher than market expectations.

Facebook reports disappoint investors, but business profile remains solid

Facebook released its Q3 results. The number of users of the social network Facebook, who are active at least once a month, reached 2.91 billion people at the end of September, having increased by 6% over the year. The number of daily active users increased by 6% to 1.93 billion. The company’s revenue increased to $ 29.01 billion from $ 21.47 billion a year earlier, which was worse than the consensus forecast of $ 29.49 billion. July-September amounted to $ 9.19 billion compared to $ 7.85 billion in the same period last year. Earnings per share rose to $ 3.22 from $ 2.71, in line with market expectations. The decrease in indicators was due to the new privacy settings in Apple products on the version of the iOS 14.5 operating platform, which increases the level of privacy. For comparison, in the previous quarter, Facebook’s net profit doubled, revenue – by 56%.

United Airlines posted good quarterly results

United Airlines posted strong Q3 results last week. The company’s revenue increased to $ 7.8 billion from $ 2.5 billion a year earlier, which turned out to be the best market forecast of $ 7.64 billion. However, revenue was lower than in the third quarter of 2019, which was $ 11.4 billion. July-September was $ 473 million, or $ 1.44 per share, compared with a loss of $ 1.8 billion, or $ 6.33 per share, in the same period last year. On a one-off basis, the company posted an adjusted loss of $ 1.02 per share, while market consensus assumed the company would post a net loss of $ 1.58 per share.

Snap shares plunge 27% on disappointing 4Q forecast

Snap released Q3 earnings late last week. The company’s revenue in the third quarter was $ 1.07 billion, up 57%. This is the first quarter for the company when its revenues exceeded $ 1 billion. At the same time, the indicator turned out to be weaker than market expectations, which had predicted revenue at $ 1.1 billion. Net loss in July-October decreased to $ 71.9 million from $ 199.8 million for the same period of the previous year. Loss per share fell to $ 0.05 from $ 0.14 on the average market forecast of $ 0.1. Snapchat had 306 million daily active users against a forecast of 301.8 million. Despite strong performance, the company’s shares fell 27% on the back of a disappointing 4Q forecast.