Netflix shares gained more than 5% yesterday, hitting an all-time high. The growth in the company’s capitalization occurred against an overall positive background, as well as improved market forecasts relative to quarterly results, which are due to be published on October 19. We are also optimistic and expect the number of paid subscribers to increase by 3.63 million in July-September, compared with management’s forecast of 3.5 million, as autumn is a seasonally favorable period for the company’s subscriber base growth. In addition, we admit that the prolonged Covid factor can lead to more positive results that may exceed even our expectations. Recall that in April-June, the number of subscribers to paid services increased by 1.54 million to 209.18 million, while at the end of April Netflix assumed that the increase would be only 1 million.
TIKR:
NFLX
PRICE:
$635
TARGET PRICE:
$700
UPSIDE:
10%
According to a Cowen survey, Netflix continues to lead the way in video production. Thus, about 28% of surveyed respondents said that Netflix provides the best video content, and the company’s platform is significantly ahead of streaming and linear services of competitors. Netflix is a pioneer in video streaming and we expect to see further growth in the company’s subscriber base, both in the US and in emerging international markets. Among the potential drivers of growth for Netflix shares are the expected strong 3Q results, which may pleasantly surprise market participants. We also expect to hear management guidance for the 4th quarter, which may contain upbeat forecasts for paid subscriber growth, as well as plans for further geographic expansion and growth in business margins.
Netflix is a streaming video provider with more than 207 million paid members globally. The company operates in three segments: Domestic streaming, international streaming and Domestic DVD. Domestic and International streaming segments derive revenues from monthly subscription services consisting solely of streaming content. The Domestic DVD segment derives revenues from monthly subscription services consisting solely of DVD-by-mail.